Imminent Black Hole Explosion Could Upend Physics & Rewrite History Of The Universe
by
Aaron Leong
—
Friday, September 12, 2025, 10:37 AM EDT
Physicists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst have made a bold prediction: there is a more than 90% probability that our telescopes could witness a black hole explode within the next 10 years. If observed, this event would not only be a truly rare visual treat but could also provide unprecedented insight into the fundamental building blocks of reality and maybe even rewrite the history of the universe in the process.
The black hole in question isn't a massive stellar-mass black hole left behind by a dying star. Instead, researchers are focused on primordial black holes (PBHs)—a theoretical class of black holes, first proposed by physicist Stephen Hawking, believed to have formed just a fraction of a second after the Big Bang approximately 13.8 billion years ago. Essentially, PBHs are far smaller and lighter than their stellar-mass counterparts.
Artist illustration of PBHs (Credit: Ingrid Bourgault/Wikimedia Commons)
According to Hawking, black holes are not truly black in the strictest sense. They slowly leak energy and particles, losing mass over time. The smaller a black hole is, the faster this evaporation process occurs, culminating in a final, explosive burst of radiation. While physicists have long theorized about this process, they believed the chance of seeing a primordial black hole explode today was astronomically small, estimating it would happen only once every 100,000 years.
However, the UMass Amherst team re-examined the theory using a "dark-QED toy model." Their research, published in Physical Review Letters this week, suggests that if these tiny black holes were born with a small electric charge, they could be temporarily stabilized. This new model drastically changes the odds, increasing the probability of a final explosion from once every 100k years to every 10 years.
Observing such an event would be transformative in three major ways. First, it would provide the first direct evidence of a primordial black hole, confirming a key theory of the early universe. Second, it would be the first-ever direct detection of Hawking radiation that has eluded scientists for decades. And finally, the explosion itself would act as a kind of space census. As the black hole evaporates, it would release a definitive catalog of all fundamental particles in existence—including known particles like electrons and Higgs bosons, as well as the elusive particles that make up dark matter, and perhaps even entirely new particles yet to be discovered.
The best part? According to the researchers, we are already equipped to see it. Current telescopes, like the HAWC (High-Altitude Water Cherenkov Observatory) and LHAASO (Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory) gamma-ray observatories, have the necessary sensitivity to detect the energetic burst of gamma rays from the final moments of a black hole’s life.