NASA Updates Odds Of A City-Killer Asteroid Smashing Into The Moon In 2032

by Aaron Leong — Friday, March 06, 2026, 11:43 AM EDT

NASA has announced that the asteroid known as 2024 YR4, a space rock roughly the size of a 20-story building, no longer poses a threat of crashing into the Moon during its close approach in 2032. While initial projections suggested a slim but still possible lunar impact, new data has refined the object’s trajectory that will carry it past the lunar surface at a distance of approximately 13,200 miles.

The saga of 2024 YR4 began when the asteroid was first detected by NASA's ATLAS station in Chile in 2024, which was initially assessed to have a near-Earth trajectory, later re-calibrated to a 4.3% chance of lunar impact. At roughly 220 feet (67 meters) wide, the asteroid is significantly larger than the bolide that exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013.

Had it struck the Moon, the collision would have been a spectacular, albeit violent event visible from Earth. Experts estimated the impact would have carved a crater over a mile wide and ejected massive plumes of debris into lunar orbit, potentially triggering meteor showers on Earth.

asteroid 20240yr4a — Illustration showing how NASA has refined the probability of a 2032 lunar impact by asteroid 2024 YR4. with the latest observations in February 2026 predicting zero percent impact probability. (Credit: NASA/JPL)

This week, however, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) integrated James Webb Space Telescope observation data into their orbital models. The asteroid had become unobservable to Earth- and space-based observatories since Spring of 2025, but it turns out Webb is capable of observing the faintest clues of 2024 YR4 yet. The results have thus shifted the predicted 2032 flyby distance just enough to move the Moon out of the crosshairs.

Despite the elimination of the impact risk, the 2032 encounter could become a significant scientific opportunity. When 2024 YR4 makes its pass, it will be one of the closest approaches of an object this size in recorded history. Perhaps the proximity will allow the Moon’s gravity to affect (or bend) the asteroid's path, potentially slingshotting the rock onto a different long-term orbit?

For now, we can only guess what exactly caused 2024 YR4's trajectory to change. Was it the Yarkovsky effect (the force where heat from sunlight on the rock's surface acts as a tiny thruster) or maybe it's another piece of alien tech disguised as a rock?