Asteroid Has A 4% Chance Of Slamming Into The Moon, Here's What Will Happen If It Does

by Aaron Leong — Friday, January 30, 2026, 10:59 AM EDT

Early last year, there was talk that the newly-discovered Asteroid 2024 YR4 had a really small, but probable chance of striking the Moon in 2032. Now, scientists are revealing what might occur if such as an event took place and the implications it could have on Earth.

orbital path esa1 — *Orbital path of YR4 (Credit: ESA Orbit Visualization Tool)*

Currently, 2024 YR4 has roughly a 4.3% chance of a lunar impact, and IF it does happen, researchers believe that it'd be the most energetic lunar impact event ever witnessed in recorded human history. Unlike the tiny flashes occasionally caught by high-powered telescopes, the impact from the 60-meter across rock has the potential to be exponentially more impressive.

According to recent research hosted on the arXiv server, the energy released upon impact would be equivalent to 6.5 megatons of TNT. A fresh strike of this magnitude would provide scientists with an opportunity to observe how shockwaves travel through lunar soil and how the Moon’s thin exosphere reacts to a sudden injection of dust and vaporized rock. For observers on Earth, the moment of impact would likely appear as a brilliant, if brief spark on the dark portion of the lunar surface.

However, the excitement is tempered somewhat by ongoing questions regarding the aftermath. Some are saying that the impact could send lunar material our way as well, though the severity has been downgraded since. Calculations indicate that the force of the strike (400 times the yield of the Hiroshima bomb) could eject lunar debris with enough velocity to escape the Moon’s gravity. Some of the ejecta could thus find its way into Earth’s orbit, potentially creating a temporary shroud of dust or even a localized meteor shower as the lunar fragments burn up in our atmosphere. So while there won't be any doomsday-level threats here, the influx of dust could pose a minor risk to sensitive satellite equipment in high Earth orbit.

For now, the prime observation window for Asteroid 2024 YR4 will begin somewhere in 2028. Experts will therefore have plenty of headroom to determine with greater certainty if a lunar impact will even occur and, if so, what to expect. In which case, all eyes (and telescopes) will be pointed at the Moon. The paper even declares that "on the Moon, active orbiters and landers should be placed in recording or imaging mode, and seismometers armed for immediate data logging."