Windows 10 EOL Spurs Big Wave Of PC Upgrades And It's Just The Beginning
PC shipments across the globe grew a sizable 8.1% year-over-year in the third quarter of the 2025, driven in large part by a rash of upgrades ahead of Microsoft ending free support for Windows 10, according to Counterpoint Research. Oddly enough, "evolving U.S. import tariff polices" also played a role in PC shipments experiencing healthy growth.
While that may seem counterintuitive on the surface, Counterpoint suggests that "strategic inventory adjustments" related to tariffs were key in the uptick in shipments. However, Windows 10 reaching EOL (end of life) status probably played a bigger role, with both enterprises and consumers scrambling to upgrade aging systems ahead of Microsoft's October deadline.
It's not a one-and-done upgrade cycle, either. According to Counterpoint, nearly 40% of the current PC install base is still powered by Windows 10. As such, the market research firm anticipates that the ongoing replacement cycle will prove to be a "major catalyst for PC market growth" over a period of several years.
Outside of continued upgrades to Windows 11 systems (and Macs, for those who choose to jump ship), Counterpoint is bullish on AI.
"While the current growth is primarily driven by OS migration, the industry is poised for an even more profound transformation with the rise of the AI PC. However, this next wave of growth has not yet fully materialized in the Q3 2025 numbers.," Counterpoint Research senior analyst Minsoo Kang said.
The firm expects AI to push another big wave of upgrades sometime after 2026, as customers big and small look to adopt chips specifically designed for on-device AI. That includes Qualcomm's Snapdragon Elite X2 chip, which is based on Arm, as well as Intel's upcoming x86 Panther Lake CPUs.
"The PC market’s rebound in 2025 is not just about replacing outdated systems, it is about preparing for what is next. Many enterprises are choosing AI-capable PCs to future-proof their fleets, even if they do not yet need those capabilities immediately. The next refresh cycle will be defined by intelligence at the edge, not just performance improvements," said David Naranjo, associate director at Counterpoint Research.
Put another way, the firm anticipates "the rise of the AI PC" in the near future as on-device AI becomes a bigger deal.
Just as it found with its previous PC shipment report, Lenovo leads the way, in terms of market share. Lenovo saw its PC shipments spike 17.4% year-over-year to maintain its lead over all other OEMs. Meanwhile, HP solidified a solid second-place positioning with a 10.3% year-over-year rise in PC shipments, while Dell's shipments slipped a tad (less than 1%).
Apple was another big winner. New MacBook models and increased adoption in the enterprise helped the Cuptertino company see a nearly 15% rise in PC shipments (yes, MacBooks are technically PCs too, at least in this context). It will be interesting to see what the next quarter brings, with Apple having just rolled out its new M5 MacBook Pro in 14-inch form. It will also be interesting to see if Apple can capitalize on the AI craze.
"We expect events like CES 2026 to be filled with on-device AI demos and new AI PC product lines, as vendors position this upgrade cycle as the dawn of a more intelligent computing era," Counterpoint states in its latest PC shipment report.
