Semiconductor Shock: MLC NAND Enters Freefall As Major Suppliers Pull Out

Moving into 2026, industry experts anticipate that MLC NAND flash capacity will decrease by 41.7%, thanks to Samsung ending its own MLC shipments in June of this year and other manufacturers including SK Hynix and Micron also limiting MLC production. As demand increases and supply decreases, prices on MLC NAND devices have risen along with memory kits, though not to the same dramatic extent thanks to the wider presence of other forms of NAND flash.

According to TrendForce, the demand for MLC NAND flash remains "fairly stable" and "primarily driven by industrial control, automotive electronics, medical devices, and networking equipment. These sectors have strict demands for reliability, write endurance, and long-term supply commitments. However, the long-term growth outlook for these applications remains limited. Furthermore, if certain use cases drive adoption of improved TLC solutions, or if the overall NAND flash market enters a clear cyclical downturn, the price of MLC NAND could still face indirect downward pressure."


In short: unlike the ongoing RAMpocalypse, NAND flash is still much more available, and even the soon-to-be-slashed MLC NAND supply may not see massive price increases. Samsung creating such a large gap in the market is also already seeing Macronix ramping up MLC NAND flash production, per Trendforce's coverage. However, Macronix is also a major NOR flash manufacturer, and its ramp up of MLC flash production directly requires it to make less NOR, so pricing on those products could increase. NOR flash is typically used in low capacities for its fast random-access reads and low latency for motherboard/device firmware, so board pricing could see some increases.

Thankfully, the Phison CEO's prediction of a 10-year NAND shortage doesn't seem to be manifesting just yet, but the forewarned RAMpocalypse has, and the drive for more AI storage will likely only increase in 2026. However, those same customers also tend to prefer QLC/PLC NAND for higher density rather than the SLC/MLC NAND once favored by high-performance consumer/gaming SSDs. The jury's still out, in other words—but don't expect MLC flash to get cheaper from here on out.

Image Credit: Samsung, TrendForce