PC Shipments Soar As Looming Tariffs Spark An OEM Buying Frenzy
Yes, we're as fatigued as you are about the constant chatter surrounding tariffs (almost as much as AI-this and AI-that). Be that as it may, they are having an impact on the technology industry. The situation remains fluid, but with higher tariffs looming, OEMs have evidently decided to stockpile systems, which in turn drove up PC shipments in the first quarter of 2025.
According to the bean counters at Counterpoint Research, global PC shipments jumped 6.7% year-over-year to 61.4 million units in the first quarter. The market research firm says tariffs were the primary driver, though it also credited the rise of AI-enabled PCs for the shipment surge. It may not last, though.
"The growth was mainly driven by PC vendors accelerating shipments ahead of US tariffs and the increasing adoption of AI-enabled PCs amid the end of Windows 10 support. However, this surge may be short-lived, as inventory levels are likely to stabilize in the next few weeks," the market research firm said in its latest shipment report. "The impact of the US tariffs is expected to dampen the growth momentum in 2025."
Thus far, the biggest beneficiaries have been Apple and Lenovo, which saw their year-over-year PC shipments grow 17% and 11%, respectively. Going down the list, ASUS saw a 9% gain, followed by HP at 6% and Dell at 4%.
Counterpoint Research attributes Apple's shipment spike to its M4-based MacBook series, like the Mac Studio we reviewed with an M4 Max chip inside. Apple also unveiled refreshed MacBook Air models with M4 silicon earlier this year, at prices starting at $999. And going back to last October, M4 MacBook Pro models made their debut.
"Going forward, competitive dynamics will be shaped by OEMs’ ability to diversify their supply chains and manufacturing bases, in addition to positioning themselves to offer the best AI PC experiences by striking key ecosystem partnerships, from silicon to software to model vendors," senior analyst William Li said in a statement.
One other thing to note is that PC manufacturing is largely concentrated in China, which is being hit the hardest with tariffs. According to Counterpoint Research, this poses "significant challenges" in mitigating the impact of tariffs for PC shipments. It's also contributing to PC makers attempting to shift product to other territories, such as Vietnam, India, and Mexico.
The overarching challenge is that even though PC costs may rise in the U.S., it's viewed as the best place to highlight the potential benefits of AI-powered hardware.
"The US market remains the most important market for AI PCs to demonstrate their capabilities and the best market to sell advanced AI-enabled devices. High tariffs, or tariff policy uncertainties, will likely discourage consumers or enterprises from buying new devices with additional costs, which in turn will suppress growth and increase in penetration. The lingering global economic uncertainty will also pose a downside risk to our forecast of a mid-single-digit YoY shipment growth of the PC market in 2025," associate director David Naranjo said.
So while shipments saw a sizable surge last quarter, there remains uncertainty in the PC industry for the remainder of 2025, according to Counterpoint Research's shipment report.
