Memory Supply Crisis Forecast To Hammer PC Shipments And Send Notebook Prices Soaring

The doom and gloom forecasts are ramping up as the memory and storage supply crunch continues to be analyzed, and today we get a two-for-one special courtesy of fresh reports by Omdia (formerly IHS Markit) and Trendforce. Together, they paint a pretty bleak picture of the PC landscape, with a modest decline in shipments expected as well as significantly higher laptop prices to come.

Starting with Omdia, which has the more muted forecast, the market research firm says combined desktop, notebook, and workstation shipments are expected to decline by 12% to 245 million units in 2026. The forecast is based on "sharp increases in memory and storage prices," which it further claims are on track rise by 60% by the end of this quarter.

"Further upward price pressure is anticipated throughout the remaining quarters of the year, though subsequent increases are expected to be more moderate. Since 1Q25, the costs of mainstream memory and storage configurations have risen by between US$90 and US$165, placing substantial financial pressure on PC vendors and forcing them to reduce promotions, raise product prices, and adjust configurations," Omdia says.

Unfortunately, the hardest-hit segment is expected to be more affordable systems that typically sell for south of $500. Shipments of budget PCs will drop by 28% this year, if the firm's forecasting skills prove sharp enough to predict the rest of 2026.

In line with that thinking, Omdia says Chromebooks will be most affected, with a 28% decline in shipments anticipated. This is followed by Windows PCs, with shipments forecast to decline 12%, and then Macs for a "comparatively modest 5%" drop.

According to Omdia's report, Apple is in the best position to absorb the impact due to its "vertically integrated supply chain and premium positioning." What's not mentioned, however, is the company's new $599 MacBook Neo. Powered by an A18 Pro chip designed for smartphones, the Neo is Apple's most affordable MacBook ever, and it will be interesting to see if eats into the share of Windows PCs and Chromebooks, particularly as the memory supply crunch lingers.

The more startling forecast comes from Trendforce, which predicts that mainstream laptops that originally sold for $900 (MSRP) could rise by nearly 40% this year. A bit of simple math puts the new MSRP for such laptops at $1,260.

"Since the start of 2026, supply for notebook DRAM and NAND flash has tightened significantly. Prices have surged, and shortages of certain components have become more pronounced, increasing uncertainty for notebook brands as they plan their procurement strategies," TrendForce says.

The report highlights skyrocketing memory prices as the main driver of its forecast, saying that alone could raise retail laptop prices by 30%. However, Trendforce also notes that CPU prices have begun creeping upward, and this this too is expected to contribute to laptop prices surging in 2026.

Beyond on the impact on pricing, Trendforce's report says recent developments in the CPU market could put affect the supply of some entry-level and lower-end processors.

As we always like to ask when these forecasts emerge, are we having fun yet?