Half-Life 3 Might Finally Be Real, An Announcement Looks Imminent

Based on some odd Steam Sale timing and a giant gap between them in November, which seems characteristic for Valve when it wants to showcase a product, the studio's most dedicated fans believe that Half-Life 3 or Valve's next-gen Steam Frame / Deckard VR headset, may be announced later this month. A Redditor on the r/ValveDeckard subreddit did some substantial legwork, noting that the typical gap between Steam Sales is only about 7 days in a given year, and that gaps larger than that frequently coincide with major Valve announcements taking their place in a typical Steam Store current promotions banner. This pattern first emerged earlier this year when the Steam Autumn sale, typically an event starting in November, was pushed two months ahead to September—a move stated in the official announcement post to be "earlier than usual, but also that's intentional".

Shifting the Autumn Sale ahead of schedule has created an unusual 21-day Steam sale gap spanning from November 18th to December 7th—a gap that's especially unusual for the Holiday Season on Steam, even missing Black Friday outright. This, combined with the ever-developing leaks on a next-gen Half-Life project and Steam hardware could indicate the possibilities of a next-gen controller, VR headset, Steam Machine, or even all of the above. There's precedent for this, too, with the Valve Index reveal being shortly followed by the Half:Life Alyx launch and that game's bombshell success.


There's no way to be sure if the theorists and leakers are accurate for now, but the Sales gap identified is truly unusual according to the data, and by Valve's own admission, creating that gap by moving the Autumn Sale ahead by two months was wholly intentional. As operators of Steam, Valve's first priority is making sure that Steam and its regular Sales do well, so the only real reason to create a substantial gap in those sales is if Valve wants to promote hardware or software of its own. While privately-owned, Valve is a shrewd company that's been careful to avoid competing with its own Steam Sales when launching new products, and there's no reason to expect them to change that mindset for the new projects we know they've been cooking up since Index and Alyx.

So while there's no guarantee that Deckard, Steam Frame, Ibex, or Half-Life 3 are right around the corner, the best time frame to announce one or all of those projects starts in nine days, per u/BeeBeeTheDev's excellent breakdown of Steam Sale timing data. If Valve is truly intent on one-upping its performance with Index and Alyx, announcing new hardware alongside the long-awaited Half-Life 3 would undoubtedly be the best way to do that. Judging by the technical and critical praise for Alyx, Valve hasn't devolved to a company that simply sells games—it does still make them, and it's very good at it.