Why PC Shipments Are Suddently Expected To Soar Despite Tumultuous Tariffs
There is a metric ton of uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, and given that this is the case, you would think that PC shipments could take a massive hit as companies attempt to navigate a tumultuous situation (which has seen Nikon hike prices and concerns arise over a potential big increase in iPhone pricing, to give just two examples). Evidently, you would also be wrong. The ironic twist is that tariffs are directly responsible for the folks at IDC upward-adjusting their PC shipments forecast.
The adjusted forecast comes on the heels of what IDC described as "strong results" in the first quarter of this year, "despite the significant impact of U.S. tariffs." It now anticipates global PC volume to see a chunky 4.1% expansion to 274 million units by the end of 2025. Why is that?
Source: IDC
Big tariffs may still loom, but according to IDC, the Trump administration's 90-day pause on ballooning tariffs has motivated PC makers to "seize the moment" and ship more systems than they had originally anticipated. However, the surprising surge in shipments does not come without a tempered warning.
"Expectations of worsening macroeconomic conditions around the world and in the U.S. characterized by upward pressures on prices and degrading consumer sentiment, will impact the PC market in the second half of 2025. Nonetheless, IDC expects commercial demand for PCs to be healthy in 2025 as the Windows 11 migration continues steadily," said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research VP with IDC's Worldwide PC Trackers.
Reading through IDC's report is like taking a roller coaster ride filled with twists and turns. In the next breath, IDC notes that there are "budget pressures on organizations" in Europe, which one might assume would negatively affect shipments. However, the end of Windows 10 support and "Covid-era refresh cycles" will help maintain growth through at least the second quarter of 2025, if not beyond.
"While enterprises and the public sector led early demand, accelerating upgrades from SMBs are poised to be the real game changers in the second half of the year," said Malini Paul, senior research manager of Devices Research at IDC.
If some of this sounds familiar, it's because Counterpoint Research also recently highlighted a significant rise in PC shipments, spurred by an OEM buying frenzy driven by uncertainty over tariffs. IDC is on the same page, based on its latest PC shipments forecast.
