Nintendo Switch 2 Price: Analyst Predicts Key Psychological Barrier
Nintendo is going to make us wait for its next Direct event on April 2, 2025 (one day after April Fools') to find out more details about its upcoming Switch 2 console, which we anticipate will reveal more information about the hardware specifications, features, and capabilities. We should also get clarity on pricing. In the meantime, a prominent analyst believes he knows how much the Switch 2 will retail for, with a psychological barrier being a key deciding factor.
According to Joost van Dreunen, a video games professor who previously co-founded and served as CEO of SuperData Research (which market research firm Nielsen acquired in 2018), the Switch 2 will likely debut with a $399 MSRP.
If that's the case, it would represent a $50 premium over the Switch OLED's $349.99 MSRP, and a $100 premium over the regular (read: non-OLED) Switch 1 console that's priced at $299.99. It would also be $50 more than the mysterious Costco listing that a supposed employee recently shared on Reddit—it was an image of a $499.99 CAD (converts to ~$350 USD) place holder sign.
"It represents a critical psychological threshold that balances premium hardware aspirations against mainstream market accessibility. At this price point, Nintendo would maintain its traditional positive margin on hardware while positioning the Switch 2 distinctly below rival premium gaming devices yet above the original Switch's launch price," Dreunen states in an article at SuperJoost.
One thing that's interesting about the predicted price point is that the Switch 2 is rumored to feature an LCD screen instead of OLED, even though OLED technology has come way down in price since the Switch 1 originally launched.
Even so, Dreunen argues that a $399 price point "signals a meaningful technical advancement without alienating" Nintendo's core family demographic. And indeed, the Switch 2 will undoubtedly feature several desirable upgrades. From the teaser video Nintendo posted, we know the Switch 2 will have a bigger screen and retooled Joy-Con controllers. It's also rumored to feature a faster, custom NVIDIA Tegra SoC, with ray tracing and upscaling technologies both potentially in play.
His analysis runs much deeper, though. The full post gets into the topic of gaming handhelds in general, with premium devices like Valve's Steam Deck and the ASUS ROG Ally validating a $399 price point for the Switch 2. While he acknowledges that those and other PC gaming handhelds are not necessarily in direct competition with the Switch 2, the similar form factors and higher pricing ($549 and up, generally speaking) makes a $399 MSRP for the Switch 2 all the more likely.
"Market data shows minimal audience overlap, with premium handheld PC users typically maintaining multiple gaming platforms. The expanding addressable audience for portable gaming ultimately creates positive spillover effects for Nintendo's ecosystem rather than competitive pressure," Dreunen says.
What's also interesting is the timing of the Switch 2 launch versus the original Switch. From Dreunen's vantage point, the Switch 2 will enter a "fundamentally different market landscape" that make it problematic to compare direct sales. He points out that the Switch 1's peak years cam in 2021-2022, with Nintendo shipping 52 million units during "unprecedented global circumstances."
The Switch 2, meanwhile, requires an altered strategy, with Dreunen arguing that Nintendo will need to focus more on platform sustainability rather than raw unit economics. And he believes Nintendo is doing exactly that, as evidenced by its commitment to backwards compatibility.
Obviously we'll have to wait and see if his price prediction ends up being accurate. In the meantime, his full analysis on the Switch 2 (and other topics) is worth a read.
