A New Research Paper Claims May’s Solar Super Storm Caused Massive Satellite Migration

A new research paper claims an intense solar storm in May may have caused a massive satellite and space debris migration. The authors noted the May 2024 geomagnetic storm was the first such event to occur during a period when low-Earth orbit satellite launches have grown dramatically, and highlights the need for the satellite operator community to understand how satellite drag will be impacted during geomagnetic storms as the solar maximum nears.

The month of May presented stargazers, who normally would not have had the opportunity, the chance to not only see the gorgeous lights of an aurora dancing across the sky, but to photograph an aurora in all its glory. However, the intense solar storms that caused the opportunity also brought with them other effects that were not as welcomed. One of those effects is suggested by authors William Parker and Richard Linares from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in a new research paper, that claims the May solar storms caused LEO satellites to experience a drop in altitude, dropping towards Earth at a rate of 590 feet per day.

According to reports, the sudden change in altitude caused thousands of spacecraft in LEO to fire their thrusters in order to regain their original altitudes above Earth. One issue Parker and Linares point out in their paper is that collision avoidance systems may not have enough time to calculate the fast changing paths of the satellites, and could lead to dangerous situations, as the population of satellites in LEO continues to skyrocket.

“The storm represented a serious challenge for the existing conjunction assessment infrastructure as it produced large, unpredictable perturbations on satellite trajectories in low Earth orbit,” noted the authors. “Automated station-keeping, especially from the Starlink constellation, caused nearly half of all the active satellites in [LEO] to manoeuvre at once in response to the storm. The combination of unpredictable satellite drag and bulk manoeuvring made it very difficult or impossible to identify potential conjunctions during the storm and in the days that followed.

There was one positive to the solar storm in terms of LEO spacecraft and debris. The paper mentioned it also helped “to hasten the decay of debris objects from orbit while most satellites escaped relatively unaffected.” As debris is extremely difficult to remove from the LEO environment, a solar storm is one of the best things for helping to maintain a long-term operable environment in LEO, according to the authors.

The solar storm in question occurred between May 7-10, reaching the highest level on the NOAA’s five-step scale, a G5 event. It was also the most powerful solar storm to hit Earth since 2003. As the Sun possibly reaches its solar maximum in the coming months, the highest rate of solar activity during the Sun’s approximate 11-year cycle, more instances like that during May’s solar storm activity could occur.