IDC Slashes PC Sales Forecast Amid Tariff Price Hike Fears But That's Not All
As higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration loom, the analysts at IDC have adjusted their outlook on PC shipments for 2025 and beyond, reducing the expected shipment figure to 273 million units for the current year. The silver lining is that's still a whole heck of a lot of PCs, and it also still represents a growth rate (3.7%) versus the previous year. It's just not as high as the 4.3% growth rate IDC had forecast last month.
The downward adjustment is based on fears of price hikes being passed on to consumers. However, that's not the only reason for IDC's updated forecast. It also points to "subdued demand" and lingering "macro issues" as contributing factors.
"Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs," said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "However, the weakness amongst consumer demand is universal as macro issues persist. There are still some silver linings though: workstation volume should remain healthy, along with near-term tablet demand in China boosted by consumer subsidies."
IDC also highlighted a "weakening market sentiment" and AI PCs facing unspecified "hurdles" since launching. However, with regards to the latter, IDC also said it expects a more robust ecosystem to emerge later in the year, which in turn will result in most new PCs being AI-capable by 2026.
Looking ahead, IDC expects the commercial space to be the biggest driver of PC shipment gains this year. The same sector grew by 2% in 2024 as companies migrated to Windows 11. They were also able to strike "some large deals," though IDC didn't go into detail.
"In keeping with past Windows PC refresh cycles, IDC expects firms to largely continue Windows 11 PC purchases through 2025, although budgets and other constraints will leave some to choose in-place upgrades or pay for extended Windows 10 support," IDC says.
Indeed, Windows 10 will officially reach the end of its lifecycle on October 14, 2025. Interestingly enough, however, Microsoft is still releasing new features for the soon-to-be legacy OS, perhaps because it anticipates a large number of organizations paying for extended support rather than making the jump to Windows 11, but that's just speculation on our part.
It will be interesting to see how IDC's adjusted forecast aligns with actual shipments. According to BBC, Trump said he plans on hitting China with a second 10% tariff, in addition to the one that already exists at the border. Those new tariffs will reportedly go into effect on next week (Tuesday).
