Heads Up, A Dead Soviet-Era Spacecraft Is Hurtling Towards Earth
In about a week or so, a three foot (one meter) module from the failed Soviet-era spacecraft Kosmos 482 will be reentering our atmosphere uncontrolled. What happens next is anyone's guess: Will it burn up during reentry? If it doesn't, will the module plummet safely back to Earth without incident, or lead to an unfortunate injury? Currently experts only have vague ideas of when and where it might land, i.e. sometime around May 10 and anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude (which is a wide swath).
On March 31, 1972, then-Soviet Union launched a probe supposedly meant for a mission to Venus, but unfortunately the spacecraft malfunctioned and broke apart while attempting to launch into Venus transfer trajectory from Earth parking orbit. Most of the major pieces decayed within the first 10 years, but one piece believed to be the probe's landing module is only just making its way back to Earth.
Space debris tracking experts aren't sure how much of the module (measuring three feet in diameter, weighing approximately 1,000 lbs) will survive reentry and, if any survive, where on Earth they might end up. So far, the module is predicted to make reentry around May 10 racing at approximately 150 mph. Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek states that "while not without risk, we should not be too worried," reassuring us that "the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime." That said, the risk is not zero.
The best case scenario at this point is that the probe will burn up in the atmosphere from deteriorated heat shields. However, the spherical module was designed to withstand 300 G's of acceleration and 100 atmospheres of pressure, so there's definitely a high chance that it'll reach Earth's surface.
A little positive news is that even though the predicted impact zone of the probe is believed to start as far north as London and Edmonton, Canada, and as south as Cape Horn in South America, the chances of a watery impact is also pretty high.
Since it was launched, analysts have doubted that Venus was truly Kosmos 482's true destination. One clue is in the craft's name itself. It was customary for the Soviet Union to name spacecrafts that remained in Earth's orbit Kosmos.
