DisplaySearch: Netbook Sales Up 103%, Revenues Elsewhere Fall In 2009
Let's take a second and think about that. During 2009, the year with the worst recession since the Great Depression, netbook sales managed to soar over 100% compared to all of 2008. Meanwhile, monies spent on netbooks went up 72%. We've got a few ideas as to why this happened, and it all starts with marketing. The Eee PC may have started the craze, but offerings from HP, Dell and even OCZ Technology helped fuel the fire. There's hardly a mass market PC company out today that doesn't have at least one netbook on sale, so they've been easier to find and competition between companies has been ever tougher.
Also, netbooks have found a place within cellphone stores. AT&T, Sprint and Verizon are all selling discounted netbooks for those needing a new PC along with a data plan, which certainly helps to get netbooks more visible (not to mention the boost in sales). And then there's Windows 7. Win7 makes the netbook much more of a modern, full-featured PC than the Windows XP models that came before. Win7 has run great on the netbooks that we have tested, and with a new round of Intel CPUs coming up, we see nothing but great things for the netbook sector ahead.
The revenue bit seems easy to us: it's all about choice and flexibility. Netbooks began as simple, one-trick-pony cheap machines. Today, you can get a netbook with varying display sizes, varying RAM/HDD options (or even an SSD), and varying GPU options. Those options increase the base price, and with more people splurging on upgrades, you've got more shots to make more from netbook sales.
The wildest part of this data, however, isn't dealing with netbooks. It's dealing with every other kind of notebook. According to DisplaySearch, revenue from the ultraportable PC, portable PC, desktop replacement PC, and all other styles of notebook PCs fell in 2009 from a year-over-year perspective. In other words, every other sector of notebook sales lost business (in terms of revenue), while netbooks gained huge amounts of share. That's telling us that netbooks actually are stealing away some market share, despite earlier claims that these were only being purchased for use as a "secondary laptop."
Honestly, it's tough to blame people in the market for a new notebook when they opt for a netbook. With Intel's new chips, Broadcom's new graphics chipset NVIDIA's Ion and the decreasing cost of SSD drives, the only reason to spend more is if you need a machine to handle very specific job-related tasks. Today's netbook lineup can easily handle the basics, and judging by the numbers, people are quite mindful of that.
Mini-Note (Netbook) Shipments Grow 103% Y/Y in 2009; Revenues Up 72%
Mini-Notes Take 19.6% of Portable PC Shipments and 10.4% of Revenues; Share to Remain Stable in 2010
AUSTIN, TEXAS, December 22, 2009—Notebook PC revenues are expected to be $109 billion in 2009, down almost 7% Y/Y, according to the DisplaySearch Q4’09 Advanced Quarterly Notebook PC Shipment and Forecast Report. A dramatic increase in the size of the mini-note (netbook) market has increased the overall size of the portable PC market, but it was insufficient to offset declines in revenue for ultra-portable and portable class notebook PCs (as shown in Table 1). Revenues in every notebook PC category were down Y/Y, and only the portable category (displays from 13” to 16”) posted Q/Q growth. The strong growth of mini-notes drove their revenue share of the portable computer market to 11.7% in Q3’09.
Table 1: Notebook PC and Mini-Note Revenue (Billions of US$)
Category
2008
2009
2010
2009 Y/Y
Growth2010 Y/Y
GrowthMini-Note
$6.65
$11.40
$11.40
72%
-0.1%
Ultraportable PC
$8.93
$6.92
$6.51
-23%
-6%
Portable PC
$91.91
$80.29
$77.05
-13%
-4%
Desktop
Replacement PC$9.60
$10.78
$13.02
-12%
21%
All Portable PC
$117.09
$109.40
$108.0
-12%
-1%
Notebook PC
(w/o Mini-Note)$110.4
$98.0
$96.6
-11%
-1%
Source: DisplaySearch’s new Q4’09 Advanced Quarterly Notebook PC Shipment and Forecast Report
DisplaySearch expects 2009 notebook PC shipment volumes to increase 5% Y/Y in 2009. However, the increase in unit growth is not sufficient to offset the almost 20% decline in ASPs. Mini-note and portable notebook PC (13-16.4”) ASPs are expected to be down more than 15% Y/Y in 2009 and again in 2010. These two market segments account for more than 85% of the total notebook market.
In 2010, DisplaySearch expects the notebook PC market to grow by 16%, with higher than average growth for mini-notes and ultra-portable notebook PCs. Growth in the latter segment is expected to be fueled by numerous new 11.6” and 12.0” products built on CULV platforms and with aggressive, sub-$500 ASPs.
Table 2: Notebook PC and Mini-Note Shipments (Millions of Units)
Region
2008
2009
2010
2009 Y/Y
Growth2010 Y/Y
GrowthMini-Note
16.4
33.3
39.7
103%
19%
Notebook PC
129.6
136.3
158.1
5%
16%
All Portable PC
146.1
169.6
197.8
16%
17%
Source: DisplaySearch’s new Q4’09 Advanced Quarterly Notebook PC Shipment and Forecast Report
The low prices of mini-notes make these products attractive to buyers seeking a secondary PC for the home, as well as making them more affordable for first-time PC buyers in emerging markets, who are less likely to require all the features available on a larger mainstream notebook PC. The relatively low ASPs also make mini-notes attractive to wireless service providers that hope to add to their revenue by offering subsidized mini-notes with data plan contracts.
“Mini-notes continue to be a significant piece of the notebook PC pie, in terms of both units and revenue. However, our long-term outlook is that the mini-note share of the notebook PC market has stabilized, and will remain at approximately 20% through 2011 before starting to erode. While mini-notes offer lower ASPs and are thinner and lighter than notebook PCs, the performance of larger notebook PCs continues to improve while prices continue to steadily decline, increasing the performance gap while narrowing the price gap.” said John F. Jacobs, Director of Notebook Market Research. “For 2010, we expect further erosion of ASPs across almost every portable computer segment. However, unit growth should be sufficient to offset ASP decline, leading to flat Y/Y revenue for the portable PC market.”
The DisplaySearch New Advanced Quarterly Notebook PC Report Now Available
Building upon DisplaySearch’s proven expertise in notebook PC market research, the company’s new advanced version of its Quarterly Notebook PC Shipment and Forecast Report will take your company’s notebook PC know-how to the next level. With expanded coverage to the end market, including street prices (ASPs) and system revenue for notebook PCs and mini-notes by display size/resolution by region, you won’t want to miss out on the latest information that can impact your business decisions.
Other report highlights include forecasted notebook PC and mini-note shipments by region, display size, resolution, along with insightful analysis of the state of the notebook PC industry, including the breadth and depth of mini-note and notebook PCs demand in the major geographic regions, and identifying the key variables influencing changing demand patterns in these markets. For information on this DisplaySearch report, contact Charles Camaroto at 1.888.436.7673 or 1.516.625.2452, e-mail contact@displaysearch.com or contact your regional DisplaySearch office in China, Japan, Korea or Taiwan.
About DisplaySearch
Since 1996, DisplaySearch has been recognized as a leading global market research and consulting firm specializing in the $770 billion display supply chain, as well as the emerging photovoltaic/solar cell industries. DisplaySearch provides trend information, forecasts and analyses developed by a global team of experienced analysts with extensive industry knowledge and resources. In collaboration with the NPD Group, its parent company, DisplaySearch uniquely offers a true, end-to-end view of the display supply chain from materials and components to shipments of electronic devices with displays to sales of major consumer and commercial channels. For more information on DisplaySearch analysts, reports and industry events, visit us at http://www.displaysearch.com/. Read our blog at http://www.displaysearchblog.com/ and follow us on Twitter at @DisplaySearch.About The NPD Group, Inc.
The NPD Group is the leading provider of reliable and comprehensive consumer and retail information for a wide range of industries. Today, more than 1,700 manufacturers, retailers, and service companies rely on NPD to help them drive critical business decisions at the global, national, and local market levels. NPD helps our clients to identify new business opportunities and guide product development, marketing, sales, merchandising, and other functions. Information is available for the following industry sectors: automotive, beauty, commercial technology, consumer technology, entertainment, fashion, food and beverage, foodservice, home, office supplies, software, sports, toys, and wireless. For more information, contact us or visit http://www.npd.com/and http://www.npdgroupblog.com/. Follow us on Twitter at @npdtech and @npdgroup.
