Analysts Expect iPad Mini to Cannibalize Full Size iPad Sales

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News Posted: Fri, Oct 19 2012 10:11 AM
Apple is expected to announce the oft-rumored iPad Mini at a press event next week, which will likely then go on sale on or around November 2nd, well in time for the holiday shopping season. That time frame has analysts wearing out their calculators as they crunch numbers trying to determine how many iPad Mini devices are likely to be sold in the coming months, and what effect it will have on Apple's full size iPad. Their conclusion?

"We believe that the smaller iPad could cannibalize one million regular iPad units in December at a rate of cannibalization at 20 percent. For every five million smaller iPads, you lose one million standard iPads," Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, relayed to AllThingsD.

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Munster's estimate is just slightly higher than that of Bill Choi's, an analyst with Janney Montgomery Scott who pegs the iPad Mini cutting into about 15 percent of full size iPad sales.

No matter how you slice it, the iPad Mini is going to eat into Apple's regular iPad sales, the only question is by how much? That's going to depend on a number of factors, starting with price. Right now very little is known about the iPad Mini, other than the fact that it will probably ship with a 7.85-inch display.

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The challenge Apple faces is putting out a product that's able to compete in the growing 7-inch tablet category dominated by Android, while at the same time ensuring there's still demand for its 9.7-inch iPad line.
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3vi1 replied on Fri, Oct 19 2012 10:40 AM

I had a Cisco Cius (until it died... those things ran way too hot), and can't understand why anyone would want a 7-inch tablet. The size is just small enough to be annoying to use, and just too big to put in a pocket.

What part of "Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn" don't you understand?

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Dave_HH replied on Fri, Oct 19 2012 1:05 PM

I agree with you. 10-inch slates all the way for me but there are a bunch of folks out there that want a small 7-inch tab.

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Cost is probably the biggest reason why people gravitate towards 7-inch tablets, however it's not the only one. They're very well suited for reading e-books, easier/more comfortable to wield one-handed than an iPad-size tablet, and are convenient content consumption devices.

I prefer a 'full-size' tablet like the iPad myself (which is why I own one), but I don't agree that that the 7-inch tablets are annoying. My girlfriend owns a Nexus 7, which between her and her daughter, gets a ton use. Same with the Kindle Fire that she had prior to that. No, they don't really fit into pockets, but they both slip nicely into purses, whereas larger tablets don't.

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sevags replied on Fri, Oct 19 2012 3:42 PM

I also agree with all of you my house has an ipad2 16gb with 3G which will never be activated. 10" seems to be the sweet spot but our iPad is used in a home on wifi 100% of the time even if we are taking it to other homes but some people carry their tablets in their backpacks, take them to work and school, to hotel rooms whether on vacation or business, and I course on planes and busses. In those circumstances I can see how even I would prefer to carry a 7" tablet because of weight sis easier to hold with 1 hand and privacy because the screen isn't quite as easy o read by others as a 10".

For the home though I am really curious if the yet unreleased Sony 20" android tablet will spark a new product segment. I would love a lap sized or almost desktop sized tablet that I can take room to room.

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digitaldd replied on Fri, Oct 19 2012 4:12 PM

3vi1:

I had a Cisco Cius (until it died... those things ran way too hot), and can't understand why anyone would want a 7-inch tablet. The size is just small enough to be annoying to use, and just too big to put in a pocket.

As someone who has had 2 different Android 7 inch tablets I can say i prefer that form factor. But after having handled a Galaxy Note I'm thinking I would much prefer that device sted of a tablet. But if Apple had come out with a 7 inch iPad around the time the iPad2 was released i would have given them $300 right then and there. that time has passed for me. 

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arism0902 replied on Mon, Oct 22 2012 3:52 AM

I prefer a 'full-size' tablet like the iPad myself (which is why I own one), but I don't agree that that the 7-inch tablets are annoying. My girlfriend owns a Nexus 7, which between her and her daughter, gets a ton use. Same with the Kindle Fire that she had prior to that. No, they don't really fit into pockets, but they both slip nicely into purses, whereas larger tablets don't.

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