Gartner Lowers PC Shipment Forecast Ahead of Windows 8

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News Posted: Wed, Jun 20 2012 11:42 AM
Three months ago, Gartner was predicting that worldwide PC shipments would reach 368 million units by the end of the year (not including tablet PCs), and more than 400 million in 2013. That projection worked out to a 4.4 percent growth rate in 2012. And now?

According to GeekWire, Gartner is lowering its projected growth rate to just 0.9 percent for the year, a downward adjustment of 3.5 percent. Gartner hasn't made its new projection public yet, but GeekWire claims that a Wall Street analyst has seen the new numbers and posted them in a note to investors over the weekend.


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It's unclear what the reasons are for lowering the PC shipment forecast, and what's even more odd is that in 2013, Gartner is reportedly projecting an 11.1 percent growth rate, down just slightly from its previous 11.1 percent projection. So in other words, shipments are going to stall ahead of Microsoft's Windows 8 launch, but return back to about where Gartner had forecast them to be in the first place.

Either way you shake it, the thing to focus on is that the PC market is still growing, whether it's by 0.9 percent or 4.4 percent, or any other positive number.
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3vi1 replied on Wed, Jun 20 2012 1:30 PM

This is surprising, since Gartner has always been Microsoft's BFF (my opinion, based on their studies I've read).

Still, I'd say they're right if they're predicting that Windows 8 won't push a lot of new PCs out the door. Unlike when Win 7 hit, people aren't still mostly clinging to a 10-year old WinXP.

Not changing their 2013 projections just sounds like they're betting both ways. Either they're right this year, and can revise the 2013 numbers in the future, or they're wrong this year "but they knew where things were going".

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realneil replied on Wed, Jun 20 2012 8:09 PM

People will be doing their clinging to Win-7 this time around. I agree that Win-8 will not sell a lot of PCs. The majority of sales will go to those who buy new PCs, and not to a lot of upgrades. Just in case I'm wrong, I predict landslide sales next year. Embarrassed

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