Although you clarify in the very end of the article, the basis of the article is slightly misleading.
PCs have been mainstream for over 15 years.
What would be the projected growth rate for microwave ovens 15 years later?
PCs are a commodity now. Everyone absolutely needs one and they likely have several in their house/enterprise.
Its simply not a growth market anymore.
Just because other newer markets like smartphones and tablets have emerged does not eliminate this market.
Well... It is said that PC's are still essential but we do have to factor in the fact that much of these tablets and the smartphones can do the same things as these PC's. Granted I'm hoping that these cheap Pentium notebooks can at least stimulate the market but taking into consideration these factors and their widespread usage, a PC doesn't seem as useful anymore...
However, it's just a prediction. Who knows what'll happen next, maybe PC's will sell 3x more than before. I do think that HP's decision to get rid of their PC business may be influencing their predictions.
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I agree the landscape is shifting, tablets and smart phones have had an huge impact on desktop sales. Laptops were taking market share imo back before the i-phone and i-pad hit the market.
Bottom line people want mobility and the desktop is going to suffer the most as a result. I think the PC will be around but I am afraid it's best days are behind, as much as I don't like to admit it.
While I will agree with you Thunderbird that people want mobility and the desktop is going to suffer. The desktop will never die at least not fully because as technology trickles down it almost always goes from enterprise servers --> desktops --> mobile. I personally need more power in general than a reasonably price laptop will provide and do not need the mobility to get my work done, I am also sure there are many others like me in the world.
@Taylor You are absolutely right it is just a prediction and only time will tell what is really going to happen.
@omegadraco I also agree the desktop may never die but it's the soccer moms and business men and people on the go who prefer the mobility as opposed to raw power that a desktop can provide.
I myself love my desktop but more and more people are purchasing slates or kindles or mobile phones and the desktop is suffering and will continue to suffer.
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