Is Moore's law on the verge of being struck down?

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Kyouya Posted: Sat, Jul 10 2010 11:56 PM

By now, majority of the people who participates in the forum should be familiar with Moore's law. It is the cornerstone of the Intel's business model for CPUs. I remember reading this article months back on how Nvidia claims that Moore's law is dead.

http://www.dailytech.com/NVIDIA+VP+Declares+Moores+Law+Dead+GPUs+Are+Computings+Only+Hope/article18279.htm

Now, I don't have a degree in engineering or programming. I may not be as educated in hardware and software as some people here in this community. However, with the inefficient support for mutiple cores, I wonder if the tech industry reached a dead end with Moore's law and the multiple cores.

Has innovation in CPUs reached its peak?

 

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acarzt replied on Sun, Jul 11 2010 12:15 AM

The simple answer... No.

There are still many things to come. Just sit tight because there are plenty of things in the works.

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AKwyn replied on Sun, Jul 11 2010 12:59 AM

Like acarzt said. Moore's law is not being stuck down anytime soon, this was even proven a few months ago! So just sit back and enjoy the CPU ride.

 

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crowTrobot replied on Sun, Jul 11 2010 10:13 AM

I think people forget that Moore's Law originally was a ten-year prediction....made in 1965. So everyone and their mother has been declaring it "dead" for years now, even Gordon Moore himself.  It's a sensational headline so you cant blame writers being uncreative using it to grab attention all these years even though using it in the wrong context most of the time.

Obviously it cannot go on forever when it hits the wall called 'quantum computing', where we are talking about atomic and sub-atomic levels (imagine transistors the size of an atom, how hard will it be to lap those processors? lol).  With current chip fabrication technology, the project wall is by the year 2020.  Still a good 10 years from now.

Regarding the Nvidia VP's comment, he wasn't referring to the main crux of Moore's Law instead but about the energy consumption and how it remained the same:

"Moore's paper also contained another prediction that has received far less attention over the years. He projected that the amount of energy consumed by each unit of computing would decrease as the number of transistors increased. This enabled computing performance to scale up while the electrical power consumed remained constant. This power scaling, in addition to transistor scaling, is needed to scale CPU performance.
But in a development that's been largely overlooked, this power scaling has ended. And as a result, the CPU scaling predicted by Moore's Law is now dead. CPU performance no longer doubles every 18 months. And that poses a grave threat to the many industries that rely on the historic growth in computing performance"

 

 

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acarzt replied on Sun, Jul 11 2010 8:25 PM

Well really there is no way to actually calculate if a CPUs performance has doubled or not.

Sure you can go by the numbers on paper, but the real world performance could show differently.

And things like ripping a DVD and such... the time isn't actually going to be cut in half... but that doesn't mean the CPU isn't twice as powerful.

I think moore's law now represents more of a steady progression than an actual measure of double performance, and if you think of it that way, we still have a long way to go before we hit a brick wall.

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Kyouya replied on Mon, Jul 12 2010 12:12 PM

I'm just wondering what is left now. I mean, you can't shrink nms and dies forever. I've been reading how multi-cores are inefficient because people are unable to execute its power properly. What's left? I know someone here mention about quantum computing, but how can the public understand that in simple terms? So far, most of the replies I get is a no with lack of conclusive evidence to prove that Moore's law still applies. I just find it hard to believe.

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