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Analyst Lowers iPad Forecast Due to iPad Mini Sales

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News Posted: Sat, Dec 15 2012 11:07 AM
One of Apple's hesitations in releasing a small size tablet was that it would cannibalize it's 9.7-inch iPad sales, but was that an unfounded concerned? Not according to at least one analyst, who lowered his iPad shipment forecast after seeing the 7.9-inch iPad mini jump out to a fast start. The iPad mini has been selling so well that Apple is having a rough time keeping up with demand.

"iPad mini demand remains strong, but shipments appeared limited by supply constraints," Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu wrote in a research note, according to ZDNet. "On the other hand, build plans for iPad appear to have been reduced likely due to some cannibalization by iPad mini."

iPad mini

In light of all that, Wu lowered his iPad sales estimate for the quarter from 25 million units to 23.5 million units. He also lowered his revenue estimate by a hair, down to $54.4 billion from $54.6 billion.

DisplaySearch seems less worried about cannibalization than Wu. According to DisplaySearch's David Hsieh, Apple will sell a combined 100 million iPad tablets in 2013. Half of those will be iPad mini devices, 40 million will be regular iPads, and another 10 million will be iPad 2 devices, Hsieh says.
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OSunday replied on Sat, Dec 15 2012 12:28 PM

I don't know how feasible this is but a way for Apple to prevent the iPad mini from cannibalizing the iPad could be to temporarily halt or slow down the iPad mini's sales. It would give them time to stock back up for demand and by implementing a possible price reduction plan for the normal iPad it would have people flocking to get one while it's on sale and help even things out. Then when the iPad mini returned there would be enough supply to feed the demand.

I'm guessing because of my lack of knowledge in the way the mechanics of things like that work it might not be the easiest for most realistic thing to do, but in concept it certainly sounds like it would work

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Dorkstar replied on Sat, Dec 15 2012 2:32 PM

They're just trying to meet holiday sales demands.  Between November and December, brick and mortar stores make up something like 70% of their sales.  This is a huge time for a manufacturer to get their products on the shelves.  The only thing Apple is fortunate for here is the demand that goes along with their products, they could over estimate their sales forecast and simply sell the devices in the next quarter.   The issue here is obviously either somewhere in the supply chain, or somewhere in the manufacturing process, either way it's not a easy problem to solve when you're a product on a scale this large.

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OSunday replied on Sat, Dec 15 2012 3:53 PM

I think  you're onto something, considering that they've been considering moving some manufacturing to the U.S. there's probably something going on overseas to facilitate that and make it something Apple would want to do.

But I think the cannibalization of the iPad by the mini is going to continue since the mini is Apple's latest "iPad" product 

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