Can Google+ Top 400 Million Users by the End of 2012?

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News Posted: Wed, Dec 28 2011 12:18 PM
If you fancy yourself a betting man, head over to Las Vegas and see if you can find anyone willing to wager which will happen first: the world will end, or Google+ will top 400 million members. Both are predicted to happen in the 2012, the former by the Mayans, and the latter by Paul Allen (stat guy, not the co-founder of Microsoft). Is either one likely to happen?

Here's what we know about the end of the world. People have been predicting man's demise probably since time began, and certainly in the past several decades. Harold Camping got it wrong multiple times, but his fuzzy math wasn't based off of Mayan calculations, which pegs the apocalypse for December 21, 2012 (not without dispute, of course).


Moving on, Google+ just passed the 62-million users mark, according to a post by Paul Allen, who lists himself as an "unofficial statistician" on his profile. By Allen's math, Google+ is adding 625,000 new users per day, and he predicts 400 million Google+ users by the end of 2012.

"Google+ is adding new users at a very rapid pace. It may be the holidays, the TV commercials, the Android 4 signups, celebrity and brand appeal, or positive word of mouth, or a combination of all these factors, but there is no question that the number of new users signing up for Google+ each day has accelerated markedly in the past several weeks," Allen said in a blog post.

Allen isn't pulling these numbers of thin air. According to Allen, his team from Elance runs hundreds of queries on various surnames they've been tracking since July, and in conjunction with Google's periodic user announcements, it gives him and and his team a rough estimate on Google+'s userbase.

So, which bet would you take?
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AKwyn replied on Wed, Dec 28 2011 6:41 PM

Well... I'd bet all of my money that Google will pass 400 million users, but not by the end of the year. Maybe next year...

Reason I say that is because even though Google is pushing this through every form of media, no amount of service can ever go quickly, plus there's still the factor of Facebook gaining more users even though there are tons of criticisms leveled against it. So this feels more reasonable, it'll grow quickly but it's not going to reach 400 million users by the end of the year. I may be wrong though.

 

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Lakawak replied on Wed, Dec 28 2011 9:12 PM

1. It is NOT the same Paul Allen that founded Microsoft.

2. He prediction is based on nothing but a GUESS. Not any statistical facts. HE uses surnames of a random sampling. HE used this ti Estimate" that Google+ had 30 million users in early July when Google itself said it had less than 10. (And they sure as hell re not going to UNDER report their numbers) He then said Google had 40 million when Google said they had about 20.

The amazing this is, stupid blogs STILL use him as a reliable source. However, most are not so stupid as to think it is the Microsoft fouder

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400 million users? Get out of here.... Unless they make Google+ a notable/Mandatory feature with people activating Android Phones, then yes, I see it happening.

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Manduh replied on Wed, Dec 28 2011 9:55 PM

Don't give them any ideas Josh lol

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Inspector replied on Wed, Dec 28 2011 10:29 PM

They don't even allow minors on google+ so they can't make it a mandatory feature unless they change that. Or risk losing all teen users :D

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Paul_Lilly replied on Wed, Dec 28 2011 11:22 PM

That's correct, it was supposed to say "not the co-founder of Microsoft" (the other Paul Allen is much creepier looking). Thank you for so politely pointing out the typo, of which I'll return the favor. It's "founder," not "fouder."

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eunoia replied on Thu, Dec 29 2011 1:34 AM

.

...pending.

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Manduh replied on Thu, Dec 29 2011 11:38 AM

eunoia:

I'm doing my share with 9 Google+ accounts already.  Still nowhere near my 23 Facebook accounts.

Nothing on the internet is true.

LMAO!!! I thought my 9 FB accts were bad, dood seriously 23?? LOL You play a lot of games or something?

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AKwyn replied on Thu, Dec 29 2011 5:26 PM

eunoia:
I'm doing my share with 9 Google+ accounts already.  Still nowhere near my 23 Facebook accounts.

23? What are you doing with 23 Facebook accounts anyway?

Relating the status of my Facebook accounts, I only have one; and that one I rarely ever use for anything, even for it's intended purpose.

 

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eunoia replied on Thu, Dec 29 2011 11:31 PM

.

...pending.

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Just to update, less than a month after Paul Allen estimated Google+'s membership at 60 million, Google's Larry Page announces it has 90 million users:

https://plus.google.com/u/0/106189723444098348646/posts/jcyvVa5K4JW

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